No one knows. But here's an honest breakdown:

**Arguments it might happen:**
- Rapid AI progress in the 2020s has surprised many experts
- Some prominent researchers (e.g., at top AI labs) assign meaningful probability to transformative AI this century
- Recursive self-improvement could accelerate capabilities quickly once AGI is achieved

**Arguments against:**
- "AGI" lacks a clear definition; current systems still have major limitations (reasoning, reliability, embodiment)
- Past AI predictions have repeatedly been too optimistic
- "Ruling the world" requires not just intelligence but physical infrastructure, economic control, and overcoming human institutions, militaries, and other AIs
- Humans may retain control through alignment research, regulation, and simply pulling the plug
- Multiple competing AI systems might balance each other rather than one dominating

**Expert forecasts vary wildly:**
- Surveys of AI researchers show median estimates for human-level AI ranging from 2040 to 2100+
- Forecasting platforms like Metaculus give significant probability to AGI by 2100, but "ruling the world" is a much higher bar than "existing"

**My honest take:** AGI existing by 2100 is plausible. AGI literally "ruling the world" is a specific scenario that requires many additional assumptions. More likely outcomes include AI being deeply integrated into human systems, dramatically reshaping economies and power structures, without a single AI entity being "in charge."

The question is genuinely uncertain — anyone claiming confidence either way is overstating what we know.
