It's very difficult to predict with confidence, but I think there are several key factors to consider:

**Reasons AGI might have major global influence by 2100:**
- If achieved, AGI could accelerate technological progress dramatically
- Economic and military advantages might concentrate power among AGI developers
- AGI systems could potentially manage complex global systems more efficiently than current approaches

**Reasons for uncertainty:**
- We don't know when AGI will arrive (estimates vary widely from decades to much longer)
- "Rule the world" could mean many different things - from beneficial global coordination to concerning concentration of power
- Human institutions, values, and resistance would likely shape how AGI integrates into society
- Technical challenges around AI alignment and control remain unsolved

**More nuanced possibilities:**
Rather than simple "rule," we might see scenarios like:
- Human-AI collaborative governance
- AGI as powerful tools controlled by human institutions
- Multiple competing AGI systems preventing any single point of control
- Gradual integration rather than sudden takeover

The outcome will likely depend heavily on how AGI is developed - whether it's created by a single entity or many, how well we solve alignment problems, and what governance frameworks we establish.

What aspects of this question interest you most? I'm happy to explore any of these dimensions further.
